The long, drawn-out fight between Ripple Labs and the SEC is finally over. Now, after Ripple agreed to a $125 million penalty to close the case in August 2025, the crypto world is asking one thing – Can XRP really shoot up to $15?
That ambitious number is grabbing headlines, and both traders and long-term believers are trying to figure out if it’s pure fantasy or a real possibility.
This isn’t just wishful thinking. The end of the lawsuit has cleared a major cloud of uncertainty that has hung over XRP for years. We’ll look at the chart patterns, the real-world uses, and the big-money theories that support this bullish price target. We’ll also break down the serious challenges that could stop it dead in its tracks.
The court ruling that changed everything!
The whole mess started in December 2020 when the SEC accused Ripple of selling $1.3 billion worth of XRP as an unregistered security. For nearly five years, the case dragged on until Judge Analisa Torres made a decision on 13 July 2023. It shook up the entire crypto industry.
She drew a clear line in the sand with her ruling –
- When Ripple sold XRP directly to big-money institutions, it was acting like a securities sale, and the SEC was right.
- However, when regular people bought and sold XRP on crypto exchanges, it was a completely different story. Judge Torres decided these weren’t securities transactions because buyers on an open market weren’t counting on Ripple’s efforts to make a profit.
This was a massive win for Ripple. The ruling basically said that a crypto token isn’t automatically a security. What matters is how it’s sold. The case officially wrapped up in August 2025 after an appeals court signed off on the agreement, solidifying the judge’s original ruling and finalizing Ripple’s $125 million fine.
The moment the legal fog lifted, the market reacted, pushing XRP’s price up by over 10%.
What do the price charts say?
A lot of the excitement around the $15 target comes from people who live and breathe price charts. They see technical patterns that have been forming for years, suggesting a huge move is on the horizon.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, for one, has his eyes on a $12.60 target – A goal he thinks is much more realistic now that the SEC is out of the picture. Other chart-watchers are pointing to massive symmetrical triangles and other bullish formations that could kick off a wild, parabolic rally.
Then, there are those using tools like the Elliott Wave theory to make even bolder predictions. Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, for instance, spoke about a potential “Valhalla price discovery” phase if XRP can break through key resistance levels.
Source: TradingView
In his most optimistic models, he saw the price going from $6.40 all the way to $27.50. Others are looking at historical patterns from past bull markets and see a path for XRP to land somewhere in the $10–$12 range.
More than just hype – Tech and the money!
The optimism isn’t just based on chart squiggles. Instead, there are real-world developments that were held back by the lawsuit.
First, the technology behind XRP, the XRP Ledger (XRPL), is getting some serious upgrades. A new Automated Market Maker (AMM) just went live, which will help create more liquidity on the network. Even bigger, an EVM-compatible sidechain launched on June 30, 2025, and in its first week, nearly 1,400 smart contracts were deployed. This move connects the XRPL to the massive world of Ethereum developers.
Source: XRPL EVM Explorer
Second, with the U.S. legal drama settled, Ripple can now confidently pitch its international payment service, Ripple Payments (formerly ODL), to American banks. This service uses XRP to settle cross-border payments in seconds, and legal clarity removes the main reason many institutions stayed away.
Finally, the ruling opens the door for a Spot XRP ETF. An Exchange-Traded Fund would make it incredibly easy for big investment firms to buy into XRP, potentially unleashing a torrent of new capital.
Financial analyst Zach Rector has a model for this. He pointed to an example where a tiny $12.87 million investment ballooned an asset’s market cap by $7.74 billion. Using a more conservative multiplier, he calculated that just $4 billion flowing into an XRP ETF could theoretically push its market cap up by $800 billion. This would put the price per coin right at $15.
Roadblocks to $15
As good as all that sounds, hitting a price like $15 is anything but a sure thing.
The way XRP tokens are supplied is a constant point of debate. There are 100 billion tokens in total, and Ripple can release up to 1 billion of them each month from an escrow account. Critics believe this puts constant downward pressure on the price. Supporters say the schedule is transparent and that a lot of the unlocked tokens get put back into escrow anyway.
Still, for the price to hit $15, demand would have to be enormous and relentless to soak up all that supply.
Ripple Labs also isn’t the only player in the game. The world of cross-border payments is crowded. Stellar (XLM) offers a similar solution but focuses more on individuals. On the contrary, the entire ecosystem of stablecoins presents a completely different way to move money quickly and cheaply.
And, you can’t ignore the rest of the world. The global economy could easily spoil the party. If inflation remains a problem and interest rates stay high, investors might be less willing to pour money into assets they see as risky, including XRP. A truly massive rally will likely need a healthy global economy, not just good news for crypto.
So, what’s next?
Right now, XRP is trading around the $3-mark. Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO believes that $3.30 is the key level to watch. Breaking above it could signal the next big leg up.
Most short-term price targets are hovering in the $3.40 to $5.00 range. However, some are cautious, warning that the “buy the rumor, sell the news” moment might have already passed. They believe the next rally won’t come from legal news, but from seeing actual, large-scale use of the technology.
On the downside, if the price falls below the support levels between $2.65 and $2.90, it could be a sign of more trouble ahead.
The bottom line is that while ending the SEC lawsuit was a huge victory that gives Ripple a clear path forward, the road to $15 is steep. It would take a perfect storm of events – Flawless technological execution, major banks and financial firms actually using XRP at scale, a friendly global economy, and a roaring bull market for all of crypto.
