Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below the $64,000 mark on Tuesday, trading near $63,916 at the time of writing, as a combination of rising oil prices and weakening institutional demand pressured the cryptocurrency. The latest decline follows a 1.44% drop in the previous session, with market sentiment dampened by stalled US-Iran negotiations and renewed inflation fears.
Negotiations between the United States and Iran over a potential peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have hit an impasse. US President Donald Trump responded to Iran's conditions with additional demands on Monday, including compensation for casualties from past conflicts, according to Reuters. The diplomatic standoff has raised concerns about prolonged disruption to global energy shipments, pushing oil prices higher and reducing appetite for risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.
The oil rally has intensified inflation worries, leading to stronger expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 51.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Fed's September meeting, up from 44.1% on Friday. Higher interest rates typically dampen demand for speculative assets by increasing borrowing costs and making yield-bearing investments more attractive, which could continue to limit Bitcoin's upside.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin started the week on a weaker note. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $144.67 million in net outflows on Monday, according to SoSoValue, ending a five-day streak of net inflows. ETF flows are closely watched as a gauge of institutional and traditional-market interest, with sustained outflows potentially adding selling pressure. While Monday's outflow does not necessarily signal a broader trend, further withdrawals could deepen Bitcoin's correction.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below a cluster of key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), maintaining a bearish near-term structure. The 50-day EMA at $64,625 serves as immediate resistance, followed by the 100-day EMA at $66,795 and the 200-day EMA at $72,045. Momentum indicators are also subdued, with the Relative Strength Index near 48 and the MACD line marginally below zero, reflecting weak and directionless momentum rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.
To improve its short-term outlook, Bitcoin must reclaim the 50-day EMA at $64,625. A sustained break above that level could open the path toward the 100-day EMA at $66,795 and eventually the 200-day EMA at $72,045, with broader resistance at $75,719. On the downside, immediate support sits at $62,345. A decisive daily close below this level would strengthen the bearish case and could trigger a deeper correction toward the yearly low of $57,800, set on July 1.
