Key Takeaways
NUPL-MVRV and Coin Days Destroyed signal early selling pressure from long-term holders. Stock-to-Flow drops sharply as shorts dominate, hinting at possible correction ahead.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] harmonic mean of NUPL and MVRV has dropped from 1.99 in December 2024 to 1.73, forming a lower high that reflects waning investor risk appetite.
This trend suggests that holders are beginning to sell into strength rather than accumulate, putting pressure on upside momentum.
Although the market still posts short-term rallies, each surge brings a smaller premium above cost basis.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $114,539 after a 0.8% daily gain. Unless the metric reverses higher, the risk of broader correction grows as profit-taking starts to outweigh demand at current levels.
Source: X/Axel Adler Jr
Are long-term holders quietly preparing for an exit?
Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) rose by 2.57% to 9.4393 million, signaling increased movement of older coins typically held by long-term investors.
This metric multiplies the number of days a coin is held by the volume moved, making it especially sensitive to long-dormant supply.
Therefore, a rising CDD often marks periods when seasoned holders exit during perceived market tops.
The latest uptick suggests more long-term investors are taking profits, aligning with the bearish divergence seen in NUPL-MVRV.
As more mature coins enter circulation, market pressure could mount despite the ongoing short-term bullish sentiment.
Has Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative lost its grip?
Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Ratio has plunged by 57.14% to 909.78K, a sharp decline that questions the strength of the asset’s scarcity-driven valuation model.
This metric compares the existing circulating supply to the rate of new issuance and has historically supported long-term bullish outlooks.
However, the recent drop signals a weakening conviction in the scarcity thesis.
Investors may now be looking toward macroeconomic cues or risk-on sentiment rather than supply dynamics.
If confidence in the model continues to decline, the long-term narrative that supports sustained upside momentum may struggle to gain traction again.
Do derivatives traders expect more downside for Bitcoin?
As of the 4th of August, the Long/Short Ratio on Bitcoin dropped to 0.944, with short positions making up 51.43% versus 48.57% in longs.
This shift below parity suggests that derivatives traders are positioning for more downside.
The ratio has remained under pressure since mid-July, showing persistent bearish bias.
Therefore, sentiment in the derivatives market no longer supports a confident rally, especially amid rising spot-side profit-taking.
If this short-heavy positioning continues and long interest remains suppressed, the selling momentum could intensify, undermining any bullish attempts at reclaiming higher resistance zones in the near term.
Will Bitcoin survive this convergence of bearish signals?
Bitcoin faces a confluence of bearish metrics: a declining NUPL-MVRV, rising CDD, plummeting S2F ratio, and bearish derivatives sentiment.
Although price remains elevated near $114K, the foundation appears increasingly fragile.
Unless demand from new capital or macro catalysts re-emerges strongly, the risk of a market-wide correction continues to rise.
