Key Insights:
- XRP whales are actively cashing out, after realizing $68 million in daily profits on average.
- Over 70% of XRP’s realized market cap was moved in late 2024 to early 2025. This means that the market is currently in a “top-heavy” structure vulnerable to sharp declines.
- The SOPR for 3-6 month XRP holders indicates they are barely breaking even, and could be involved in more selling pressure if prices drop.
XRP is once again under the spotlight. However, this time around, the narrative is changing from optimism to caution.
Despite the cryptocurrency’s strong rally that took the price close to $2.60 earlier this month, signs are starting to show up, and XRP could be headed for a major correction. Here’s everything to know about the on-chain data and profit-taking by large holders that has been spooking investors
Whales Are Cashing Out, $68 Million Per Day
According to recent data from Glassnode, some of XRP’s most profitable investors are offloading tokens at alarming levels.
Many of these traders entered positions before XRP broke out in November 2024. This time around, they are now taking in profits of $68 million daily on a seven-day average.
XRP’s Realized profit by margin, Source: Glassnode
These holders saw their investments grow by more than 300%, with XRP rising from under $0.50 to nearly $2.60 in just a few months. Now that they’re deep in profit, they’re locking in gains.
This trend is now creating sell-side pressure that resembles the pattern seen before XRP’s 2017 market top, when the token jumped above $2.50 before crashing over 90%.
Top-Heavy Market Structure Raises Alarm Bells
One of the clearest warning signs of this trend is the realized cap concentration metric. According to data from glassnode, over 70% of XRP’s realized market cap was created between 2024 and early 2025.
For context, the realized market cap of an asset refers to the price at which tokens last changed hands. The above means that most of the current circulating supply for XRP was recently acquired.
As a result, the market is now in a situation known as top-heavy market conditions. Historically speaking, this type of structure is a dangerous one. Similar to a skyscraper, heavier at the top than at its foundation.
When prices fall, newer holders who bought near the top are more likely to panic-sell, which will, in turn, lead to sharper declines. This fragility is now reflected in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) data.
SOPR and Realized Prices Show Trouble Ahead
The SOPR metric is great for checking whether investors are selling at a profit or a loss. Some of the cohorts currently being monitored include those with 3- to 6-month and 6- to 12-month hold periods.
According to Glassnode data, the 3–6 month group (who entered after the November 2024 rally) bought at an average price of $2.28. XRP is now trading around $2.14, which means that this cohort of investors is barely breaking even.
On the other hand, the 6–12 month group bought their XRP at an average of $1.35 (which means that they have a cushion). If the price of XRP drops to that level, it could start another wave of selling, and analysts are warning that if the market’s current holders continue to take profits or cut losses, XRP could be in for another 35% dump.
This would bring the cryptocurrency towards a $1.35–$1.60 retest.
A Bearish Chart Pattern Confirms the Outlook
Another red flag to be aware of includes the current XRP charts. According to the charts, the token has formed a descending wedge, which is a bearish reversal pattern when it appears during an uptrend.
XRP in a falling triangle, Source: TradingView
If XRP breaks below the support line of this triangle, it could start to trend downwards towards the $1.3 price floor. However, the bulls still have one more technical line of defense left.
The 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) could serve as a launchpad for the bulls to make a comeback. A rebound from this price level could invalidate the bearish prediction and send XRP upwards again, towards $3.00 or higher.
The post This Is Why The XRP Bears Might Be Stronger Than The Bulls appeared first on Live Bitcoin News.
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